The Blog

Poor Chicago. Friday's Olympic vote will probably be another disappointment.

Rio will win the 2016 Olympic host city bid.

Believe me, as a devoted Olympics fan, I’d love to see the Games come to the Chi. My hometown in Metro Detroit is only 4 hours away from the city and it’s always been one of my favorite destinations.

But the odds are against Chicago for various reasons:

1. The ’84, ’96 and ’02 games were already held in the USA. Most countries only receive host city bids once every few decades.
2. The 2012 games will be held in the UK. While the two societies aren’t necessarily the same, people tend to equate the  countries with each other. The IOC may want to mix up the venues.
3. And of course, the most obvious reason: the Games have never been held in the entire continent of South America. Giving the Games to Rio would perhaps strengthen their appeal in that area, making it a sexy choice for the IOC.

Of course, Chicago still has a good shot. President Obama may come to Copenhagen after all for the final decision on October 2, a move that could sway some of the IOC voters. The IOC’s share of revenue supposedly increases by 20% when the games are held in the States. Chicago is also probably the safest bet, since money for the Games could be raised pretty quickly.

And Rio’s bid is far from perfect. High crime rates and the city’s failure to fulfill promises for the 2007 Pan-Am games could hurt its chances.

But even cities that have been slow to develop have turned around in time for the Games. Remember in 2004 when Athens was considered unprepared months before the Games began? Or that pollution problem Beijing had just one month before the Opening Ceremony last year? Both cities turned around quickly.

In the end, it really comes down to this: since 1896, when the modern Olympics were created, the Games have never been to South America. Combine that with a Brazil’s rising economy and highly supportive population — nearly 85% of people in Rio alone want the Games to come to their city — and its delegation will certainly have the most passionate bid.

And as the New York Times puts it: “In the past, the I.O.C. has bestowed its seal of approval on uncharted regions at propitious times in their histories.” Deal, consider yourself sealed.

Sorry, Chicago. There’s always 2020?